Tom Bourne
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Organisational Foresight
Curriculum
11 Sections
24 Lessons
10 Weeks
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The Problem of Seeing
3
1.1
Why Disasters Don’t Come From Nowhere
1.2
What We Think Causes Disasters — And Why We’re Wrong
1.3
Module 1 Quiz: How Disasters Are Made
8 Questions
The Blindspot Model
2
2.1
Introducing the Five Conditions
2.2
Module 2 Quiz: How Disasters Incubate
7 Questions
Signal Attenuation
2
3.1
Signal Attenuation: When the Warning Never Arrives
3.2
Module 3 Quiz: Signal Attenuation
8 Questions
Normalised Tolerance
2
4.1
Normalised Tolerance: When Dangerous Becomes Normal
4.2
Module 4 Quiz: Normalised Tolerance
7 Questions
Structural Secrecy
1
5.1
Structural Secrecy: When No One Has the Full Picture
Production Gravity
1
6.1
Production Gravity: When Getting the Job Done Becomes the Only Thing
Leadership Detachment
2
7.1
Leadership Detachment: When Those at the Top Can No Longer See
7.2
Module 5 Quiz: Structural Secrecy, Production Gravity, and Leadership Detachment
8 Questions
Active Foresight
4
8.1
The Perfect Blindspot: When All Five Conditions Converge
8.2
What Seeing Looks Like: Organisations That Interrupted the Pattern
8.3
Building Active Foresight in Your Organisation
8.4
Module 7 Quiz: Active Foresight
8 Questions
Board Governance and Leadership
3
9.1
The Board’s Role: The Ten Questions
9.2
From Seeing to Acting
9.3
Module 6 Quiz: The Perfect Blindspot
7 Questions
Case Studies: Disasters in Focus
11
10.1
Case Study: Deepwater Horizon — The Macondo Blowout (2010)
10.2
Case Study: Grenfell Tower — The Fire That Should Not Have Happened (2017)
10.3
Case Study: Space Shuttle Challenger — The Erosion of Caution (1986)
10.4
Case Study: Space Shuttle Columbia — The Silence of Concern (2003)
10.5
Case Study: BP Texas City — Production Before Safety (2005)
10.6
Case Study: Esso Longford — The Knowledge That Was Lost (1998)
10.7
Case Study: Pike River Mine — When the Warnings Were There (2010)
10.8
Case Study: Wittenoom — The Decades-Long Blindspot (1948–1966)
10.9
Case Study: Herald of Free Enterprise — Nobody’s Job (1987)
10.10
Case Study: Gretley Colliery — The Map That Was Wrong (1996)
10.11
Case Study: Chernobyl — The Perfect Blindspot (1986)
Final Assessment
1
11.1
Final Assessment: Organisational Foresight
25 Questions
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